光伏行业拐点何时显现？
本文源自：期货日报
4月3日，多晶硅期价大幅下跌。当日盘中，主力2605合约一度跌超5%，触及33235元/吨，创2025年7月以来新低；截至收盘，该合约报33770元/吨，下跌4.69%。
分析人士认为，多晶硅期价下跌主要受基本面影响。
国信期货分析师李祥英介绍，当前，多晶硅行业供需失衡——产业链各环节的硅料库存持续累积，企业低价甩货意愿增强，但下游承接能力有限。
“光伏产品增值税出口退税政策4月1日正式取消后，海外市场需求进一步减弱，导致光伏组件企业开工率逐步下滑，并逐步向上游传导。在此背景下，下游硅片生产企业持续亏损，库存去化速度缓慢，开工率持续低迷，对原材料采购的意愿也较低。从成本来看，原材料工业硅价格近期持续下行，并且丰水季临近、西南地区电价存在下调预期，多晶硅生产成本有望进一步降低。”李祥英表示，在供需失衡、成本对盘面支撑有限的情况下，多晶硅价格企稳为时尚早。
CITIC Construction Investment Futures Analyst Liu Jiachang also believes that the current decline in polysilicon futures prices is mainly due to the negative feedback effect in the supply chain. 'With the cancellation of the export VAT refund policy for photovoltaic products on April 1st, the downstream稼动率 further decreases, and the output of the three links from silicon wafers to modules may be less than 50GW.' He said.
According to CITIC Futures' calculations, the global polysilicon inventory in April is expected to be about 51.87 million tons, with an inventory utilization period close to five months. Liu Jiachang stated that currently, high inventories are suppressing polysilicon prices.
While upstream producers have implemented production cuts, the industry's inventory accumulation pattern has not yet been reversed, and inventory reduction and supply clearance will still require time, according to CITIC Futures analyst Zheng Fanfeng.
The futures reporter noted that on April 1st, the Guangqi Exchange released a notice optimizing the rules for polysilicon futures, adjusting transaction thresholds, handling fees, margin requirements, etc., which was officially implemented on April 3rd, greatly increasing the liquidity of the polysilicon futures market. From the trading volume, the daily trading volume and open interest of polysilicon futures increased after the rule optimization.
'In recent years, the polysilicon spot market has undergone profound changes, and the industry cycle rotation has led to significant shifts in production and consumption preferences. Looking back at the background of the old delivery standard setting, the photovoltaic industry was then transitioning from P-type to N-type, and downstream players generally preferred N-type silicon materials. Therefore, the futures benchmark product was set as N-type silicon material. Currently, the spot industry landscape continues to evolve, with downstream players tending to choose cost-effective electronic grade 3 silicon materials, which has reduced the share of higher quality electronic grade 2 silicon materials. Meanwhile, as the quality stability of granular silicon improves and its market recognition increases, downstream demand for granular silicon is also growing,' Liu Jiachang explained. The optimization of polysilicon futures rules aligns with changes in the spot market and helps better leverage the role of futures. The current market performance indicates that the market highly recognizes the Guangqi Exchange's rule optimization.
Looking ahead, Li Xiangying believes that short-term there are no positive factors to support the rise in polysilicon prices, and the futures market is likely to continue to fluctuate downward.
Zheng Fanfeng stated that the optimization of polysilicon futures rules merely enhances market participation, and prices will still follow the fundamentals. In the current market environment, short-term polysilicon futures prices may continue to oscillate around the cost line, while long-term attention should be paid to industry policy changes and improvements in downstream demand.
‘Currently, although visible inventories of polysilicon continue to increase, hidden inventories are being gradually reduced, indicating that the downstream is still consuming existing raw material reserves, and the procurement demand for polysilicon is insufficient,’ Liu Jiachang pointed out. According to his assessment, if the rate of hidden inventory reduction remains unchanged, hidden inventories could be down to one month's worth by early May, signaling potential downstream restocking needs and support for polysilicon prices.