AI能否挽救特朗普任期下的美国经济困局

The progress of artificial intelligence has been astonishing, and now we know it's helping the overall U.S. economy much faster than most thought. That's the main story from Thursday's first quarter GDP report, with AI-related investment driving most of the 2% growth. Meantime, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose at an annual rate of 4.5%. You don't need ChatGPT to tell you that President Trump's tariffs are hitting consumers.

人工智能技术突飞猛进，如今其对美国经济整体的拉动效应远超众人预期。 周四发布的一季度国内生产总值报告揭示了这一点，与人工智能相关的投资成为2%增速的主要引擎。 与此同时，个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数年化攀升4.5%。 即便不用ChatGPT，民众也能感受到特朗普关税带来的切身之痛。

Trump officials have insisted that last summer's tax bill would supercharge growth this year. You wouldn't know it from the GDP report. Consumer spending eased somewhat from last year and accounted for about half of the 2% growth. Consumer spending picked up more in March, but mainly because of higher prices at the gasoline pump.

特朗普团队曾信誓旦旦，去年夏季的减税法案将令今年经济腾飞。 然而GDP数据却难觅踪迹。 消费支出较去年有所回落，对2%增长的贡献仅占约半数。 三月消费虽现回暖，但主要归因于油价攀升。

The best news from the report is the 10.4% growth in business investment. Equipment purchases accounted for 0.88 points of the first quarter growth, nearly all of which came from information processing. Intellectual property contributed another 0.7 points, mostly from software. Big Tech and the AI boom can take a deep bow.

报告中最亮眼的数据当属企业投资10.4%的增幅。 设备购置为一季度增长贡献0.88个百分点，几乎全部源自信息处理领域。 知识产权再添0.7个百分点，软件板块居功至伟。 科技巨头与人工智能浪潮值得深深致意。

Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta this week reported a stunning $130 billion in capital expenditures during the first quarter as they built out AI data centers. That's a 71% increase from last year. AI is spurring business spending on computer chips and servers, as well as downstream for electric power generating and cooling equipment.

谷歌、亚马逊、微软与Meta本周披露，一季度为搭建人工智能数据中心豪掷1300亿美元资本开支。 同比激增71%。 人工智能正催生芯片、服务器领域的企业投入，并辐射至发电与制冷设备等下游产业链。

No one knows when this music will stop, and which firms will emerge on top. But this much investment is bound to lift economic productivity sooner or later, which will mean wage increases for workers.

这场盛宴何时落幕、最终谁主沉浮，犹未可知。 但如此巨量的资本投入终将提升经济生产率，劳动者薪酬水涨船高指日可待。

The AI investment boom and Mr. Trump's tax cuts—especially the business expensing provisions—are helping to offset the damage from his tariffs. But tariffs are a tax, and taxes hurt growth. Mr. Trump's willy-nilly imposition of border taxes has also fueled uncertainty, which makes it difficult for businesses to plan investments.

人工智能投资热潮与特朗普减税举措——特别是企业即时扣除条款——正部分对冲关税之殇。 然关税实为一种税负，而税负必损增长。 特朗普随心所欲的边境税举措亦平添变数，令企业投资规划举步维艰。

Tariff costs will vary by the particular business and individual, but most Americans are getting stung whether they know it or not. Our friends Michael Solon and Phil Gramm wrote in these pages this week that the $195 billion in new tariffs that were collected last year swamp the $188 billion that taxpayers will receive in lower federal tax liability for 2025 thanks to last summer's tax cuts.

关税负担因企因人而异，但多数美国人已在不知不觉中承压。 本刊作者迈克尔·索隆与菲尔·格拉姆本周指出，去年新征的1950亿美元关税，已超越夏季减税为纳税人2025年节省的1880亿美元联邦税负。

The 4.5% increase at an annual rate in the PCE index—the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure—was also the most since the 2022 third quarter and up from 2.9% in last year's fourth quarter. Don't blame the war in Iran. The PCE excluding energy and food came in at an annual 4.3%.

美联储偏爱的PCE指数年化上涨4.5%，创2022年三季度以来新高，较去年四季度2.9%明显抬升。 伊朗战事难辞其咎之说难以成立。 剔除能源食品后，核心PCE仍达4.3%。

Tariffs don't cause general inflation, but they do lead to one-time price increases in the specific goods that are tariffed. To the extent tariffs reduce competition for domestic producers, they can also lead to more price increases down the road. Prices for most categories of goods increased last quarter, including for recreational goods and vehicles (20.4% annual rate), household furnishings (5.9%), and clothing and footwear (6.8%). These are subject to tariffs.

关税虽不致全面通胀，却令特定商品价额一次性跳涨。 且关税削弱国内厂商竞争压力，远期价格或再承压。 上季度多类商品价格上扬，娱乐用品及车辆年化飙涨20.4%，家居陈设5.9%，衣履鞋帽6.8%，皆在关税波及之列。

The inflation problem that Mr. Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh, will inherit is much broader, as evidenced by accelerating service prices, up 4.1% in the first quarter. Mr. Trump could help himself and the economy by dropping his border taxes, not that we expect he will. If voters sore about prices rebel against Republicans at the ballot box in November, the Trump tariffs will be a major reason.

特朗普提名的美联储主席人选凯文·沃什将接手更为棘手的通胀困局，一季度服务价格加速上涨4.1%即为佐证。 特朗普若弃边境税于不顾，于己于经济皆为利好，然此举恐难期待。 倘使饱受物价之苦的选民十一月反戈，特朗普关税政策将难辞其咎。