AI重塑职场版图：哪些工作被赋能，哪些岗位面临淘汰

接下来我将以中英混合的方式为大家解读高盛这篇关于AI对就业影响的分析报告，虽然主要聚焦美国就业市场，但对全球范围内AI对劳动市场的影响仍具有重要参考价值。我有朋友在AI领域工作，我们就此话题探讨过很多次。一个明显的趋势是，AI已经对那些逻辑清晰、重复性高的行业产生了冲击，随着AI能力的不断拓展和渗透领域的持续扩大，它对我们日常生活的影响将会进一步加深。

对英语感兴趣的朋友，可以先阅读英文部分。

Artificial intelligence (AI) isn't just a risk to jobs—Goldman Sachs Research estimates that it also increases the number of jobs in some sectors. Our economists find that, in occupations where workers face a high risk of being substituted by AI, jobs are being lost. But in roles where AI is more likely to augment human labor, employment levels are rising.

人工智能（AI）不仅是就业的威胁——高盛研究部估计，它同样在部分行业创造了新的就业机会。我们的经济学家发现，在那些员工面临被AI替代高风险的工作岗位中，职位正在流失。但在AI更可能增强人类劳动力的岗位上，就业水平正在上升。

Overall, this has created a modest net drag on US labor markets, Goldman Sachs Research economist Elsie Peng writes in a report. By distinguishing between substitution and augmentation, the team develops a more detailed analysis than earlier research on this topic. They combine an AI displacement score used previously with an index developed by International Monetary Fund economists to measure AI complementarity—the extent to which AI can augment human workers, automating some tasks while still requiring human judgment, creativity, and interpersonal skills.

高盛研究部经济学家彭艾丝在一份报告中指出，总体而言，这给美国劳动力市场带来了温和的净拖累。该团队通过区分替代效应与增强效应，开展了比以往更深入的分析。他们将此前使用的人工智能替代评分与IMF经济学家开发的人工智能互补性指数相结合，用以衡量人工智能增强人类工作者的程度——在自动化部分任务的同时，仍需依赖人类的判断力、创造力和人际交往能力。

Is AI causing job losses?

人工智能会导致失业吗？

The new analysis, weighing both substitution and augmentation, allows the economists to "dig deeper into AI's impact on the labor market so far," Peng writes. The team estimates that AI has reduced monthly payroll growth by roughly 16,000 jobs in the US in the past year and raised the unemployment rate by 0.1 percentage point.

彭指出，这种同时权衡替代与增强的新分析方法，使经济学家能够"更深入地探究AI迄今为止对劳动力市场的影响"。该团队估算，过去一年中，AI导致美国月度薪资增长岗位减少约1.6万个，并使失业率上升了0.1个百分点。

The aggregate impact of AI on jobs in the past year has likely been smaller than those numbers indicate, however. That's because the estimates don't fully capture the offsetting effect of hiring for data center construction or incremental labor demand generated by AI-related productivity and income gains, Peng writes.

然而，AI在过去一年对就业的总体影响可能小于这些数字所呈现的程度。彭解释道，这是因为估算未能充分反映数据中心建设带来的招聘抵消效应，以及AI相关生产率和收入增长所产生的增量劳动力需求。

When our economists looked specifically at jobs with the potential for AI augmentation, they found an increase of monthly payroll growth by about 9,000 jobs in the past year, and a small lowering of the unemployment rate. Their research also shows that the negative overall effects of AI on job creation appear to be falling largely on younger, less-experienced workers.

当我们的经济学家专门审视具有AI增强潜力的岗位时，他们发现过去一年月度薪资增长岗位增加了约9000个，失业率也略有下降。他们的研究还表明，AI对就业创造的整体负面影响似乎主要落在年轻、经验相对不足的劳动者身上。

Which jobs are benefiting from AI?

哪些工作正受益于人工智能？

Where AI can substitute for human labor, and companies can deploy AI to automate tasks, the impact on employment is likely to be negative. In occupations where AI augments human labor, though, the effect is more ambiguous, Peng writes.

在AI能够替代人类劳动、企业能够部署AI自动化任务的领域，对就业的影响很可能是负面的。然而彭指出，在AI能够增强人类劳动的岗位上，其影响则更为复杂模糊。

How AI complements humans in certain roles

人工智能如何补充人类在某些角色中的作用

Occupations with similar AI exposure can differ in their degree of AI complementarity—that is, the degree to which AI can complement a human rather than substitute them. Customer service representatives and interior designers both face AI exposure, for example. But the work of interior designers requires more unstructured tasks and more frequent physical presence at worksites—things that cannot be fully automated. In other words, the AI complements the human in interior design, giving the profession a higher augmentation score.

具有相似AI暴露程度的职业在AI互补性水平上可能存在差异——即AI能够补充而非替代人类的程度。以客户服务代表和室内设计师为例，两者都面临AI的接触。但室内设计师的工作需要更多非结构化任务和更频繁地亲临现场——这些都是无法完全自动化的。换言之，在室内设计领域，AI是对人类的补充而非替代，这使得该职业获得了更高的增强评分。

Which jobs are most at risk of being replaced by AI?

哪些工作最有可能被人工智能取代？

When jobs are sorted in this way, it shows that professionals such as telephone operators, insurance claims clerks, and bill collectors face the highest substitution risk. By contrast, roles such as education workers, judges, and construction managers offer the highest AI augmentation potential.

按这种方式对工作进行分类后，可以看出电话接线员、保险理赔员和账单催收员等专业人员面临最高的替代风险。相比之下，教育工作者、法官和建筑经理等职位则展现出最高的AI增强潜力。

Recent research that has examined the differences between these two categories more closely has found that occupations and firms exposed to AI substitution have seen declines in operating costs and job postings. Occupations and companies with more AI augmentation potential have seen increased productivity and more job postings, Peng writes.

彭博士指出，近期对这两类差异进行的深入研究表明，面临AI替代风险的职业与企业，其运营成本及招聘岗位数量均呈下降趋势；而具备较强AI增强潜力的职业与企业，则实现了生产力提升和岗位招聘数量的增长。