吴恩达批驳AI引发失业恐慌的言论

DeepLearning.AI创始人、亚马逊董事会成员吴恩达(Andrew Ng)近期就AI对人类就业的影响发表观点。他明确表示，AI不会导致就业灾难，将大规模失业的说法视为不负责任、渲染恐慌的夸大言论。他承认AI正在改变许多人的工作方式，这个过程可能伴随压力和挑战，但同时也蕴含机遇。他坚决反对就业市场崩溃、岗位大规模消失、人类被取代等悲观预测。

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译文:

AI不会造成就业灾难。

人工智能将引发大规模失业的说法，正在制造不必要的恐慌。AI——如同任何其他技术一样——确实会对就业产生影响，但渲染大规模失业的夸张故事既不负责任，也具有破坏性。我们应该停止这种说法了。

我曾在往期通讯中对就业灾难论表示过质疑。令人欣慰的是，主流媒体如今也开始反驳这一论调。下图展示的是近期部分相关新闻标题。

软件工程是受AI工具影响最显著的行业，代码生成工具发展迅猛。但软件工程师的招聘需求依然旺盛！虽然存在AI替代部分岗位的案例，但趋势明确显示：净新增就业岗位数量远超消失岗位数量——这与此前历次技术革命浪潮如出一辙。此外，尽管AI领域成果斐然，美国失业率仍稳定在健康的4.3%。

为何"AI就业末日论"会如此盛行？

一方面，前沿AI实验室有强烈动机讲述使AI技术听起来更强大的故事。在极端情况下，他们甚至宣扬AI"接管世界"、导致人类灭绝的科幻场景。毕竟，如果一项技术能替代大量员工，那么这项技术一定非常有价值！

另一方面，许多SaaS软件公司按每人每年100至1000美元收费。但如果一家AI公司能替代一名年薪10万美元的员工，或让员工效率提升50%，那么即便收费1万美元也开始显得合理。通过锚定员工薪资而非典型SaaS价格，AI公司可以收取高得多费用。

各大主流报纸的头条纷纷分析"AI就业末日"预测，探讨就业市场稳定性。

此外，企业也有强烈动机将裁员描述为AI所致。毕竟，谈论他们如何利用AI以更少人员实现更高效率，让他们看起来很聪明。这比承认疫情期间低利率和政府大规模财政刺激下资本充裕时过度招聘要好听得多。

需要明确的是，我认识到AI正在让很多人的工作发生变化。这很艰难。这有压力。（对某些人来说，也可能很有趣。）我理解所有受影响的人。但与此同时，这与预测就业市场崩溃大不相同。

社会能够长期相信一些缺乏现实基础、导致糟糕社会决策的故事。例如，对核电站安全的恐惧导致核电投资不足。20世纪60年代对"人口炸弹"的恐惧导致各国实施严厉的人口缩减政策。对膳食脂肪的担忧让政府在数十年间推广不健康的高糖饮食。

如今主流媒体对就业末日论公开表示质疑，我希望这些故事开始失去影响力（就像对AI导致人类灭绝的恐惧一样）。

与AI就业末日的预测相反，我预测的是相反的结果：将会迎来AI就业大繁荣！AI将带来大量优质的AI工程岗位，我对整体就业市场的未来也持乐观态度。AI工程师的工作内容将与传统软件工程不同，其中许多岗位将出现在传统开发者雇主以外的企业。在非AI岗位中，所需技能也会因AI而改变。这使得现在是鼓励更多人掌握AI技能、为未来多元但充足的就业机会做好准备的绝佳时机！

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原文如下:

Dear friends,

There will be no AI jobpocalypse.

The story that AI will lead to massive unemployment is stoking unnecessary fear. AI — like any other technology — does affect jobs, but telling overblown stories of large-scale unemployment is irresponsible and damaging. Let’s put a stop to it.

I’ve expressed skepticism about the jobpocalypse in previous letters. I’m glad to see that the popular press is now pushing back on this narrative. The image below features some recent headlines.

Software engineering is the sector most affected by AI tools, as coding agents race ahead. Yet hiring of software engineers remainsstrong!So while there are examples of AI taking away jobs, the trends strongly suggest the net job creation is vastly greater than the job destruction — just like earlier waves of technology. Further, despite all the exciting progress in AI, the U.S. unemployment rate remains a healthy 4.3%.

Why is the AI jobpocalypse narrative so popular? For one thing, frontier AI labs have a strong incentive to tell stories that make AI technology sound more powerful. At their most extreme, they promote science-fiction scenarios of AI “taking over” and causing human extinction. If a technologycan replace many employees, surely that technology must be very valuable!

Also, a lot of SaaS software companies charge around $100-$1000 per user/year. But if an AI company can replace an employee who makes $100,000 — or make them 50% more productive — then charging even $10,000 starts to look reasonable. By anchoring not to typical SaaS prices but to salaries of employees, AI companies can charge a lot more.

Additionally, businesses have a strong incentive to talk about layoffs as if they were caused by AI. After all, talking about how they’re using AI to be far more productive with fewer staff makes them look smart. This is a better message than admitting they overhired during the pandemic when capital was abundant due to low interest rates and a massive government financial stimulus.

To be clear, I recognize that AI is causing a lot of people’s work to change. This is hard. This is stressful. (And to some, it can be fun.) I empathize with everyone affected. At the same time, this is very different from predicting a collapse of the job market.

Societies are capable of telling themselves stories for years that have little basis in reality and lead to poor society-wide decision making. For example, fears over nuclear plant safety led to under-investment in nuclear power. Fears of the “population bomb” in the 1960s led countries to implement harsh policies to reduce their populations. And worries about dietary fat led governments to promote unhealthy high-sugar diets for decades.

Now that mainstream media is openly skeptical about the jobpocalypse, I hope these stories will start to lose their teeth (much like fears of AI-driven human extinction have).

Contrary to the predictions of an AI jobpocalypse, I predict the opposite: There will be an AI jobapalooza! AI will lead to a lot more good AI engineering jobs, and I’m also optimistic about the future of the overall job market. What AI engineers do will be different from traditional software engineering, and many of these jobs will be in businesses other than traditional large employers of developers. In non-AI roles, too, the skills needed will change because of AI. That makes this a good time to encourage more people to become proficient in AI, and make sure they’re ready for the different but plentiful jobs of the future!

Keep building,

Andrew